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Filemaker 12 - Code name Waldo


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#1 Ted S  all around good guy

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 01:11 PM

Filemaker Pro version 11 was unveiled in March of 2010. Fourteen months earlier we first saw FM version 10 and eighteen months before that we saw version 9. According to Wikipedia the typical time between major releases is in the neighborhood of fifteen to eighteen months.

Given that history and the fact that it has been roughly 17 months since the last new version was introduced it would seem like a new version is due any day now, or perhaps it was really due early LAST month.

Filemaker Inc's big developer show of the year, DEVCON, was held just about a month ago and nothing new was introduced or revealed at that show... at least not to the general public. I can't say if attendees were given a special look at the next version as I wasn't there nor have I talked with anybody who was.

Now it would seem like DEVCON would be the perfect place to build up excitement about a new version. DEVCON has hundreds of attendees some of who live and breathe Filemaker day and night. I would think that FMI executives know that their most loyal customers have to pony-up as much as a couple grand to attend the four day DEVCON and would think that it is a big disappointment for the developers not to have something new to learn about and something new to talk about. This failure to make the attendees happy should be a big concern to FMI. The question is why wasn't FM12 released?

The obvious answer is that the new version just plain isn't ready yet. Maybe it was supposed to be but the schedule slipped for some reason.

Or perhaps it wasn't ever intended to be released at DEVCON. Maybe FMI is switching to a 24 month release cycle but history would say no and it just seems to me that products like Google Chrome are moving in the other direction with releases happening every 6 weeks. Before you jump all over me I know that there is a world of differences between Chrome and FMP but it just seems like for cash flow reasons the cycle shouldn't be getting longer.

The last scenario is the interesting one. What if FMI actually had version 12 ready to go but were ordered by a higher authority to go into a holding pattern. What if version 12 was ready to be released at DEVCON but FMI's mother ship, Apple Computer, put the brakes on it.

But why would Apple do that?

Interestingly, the next iPhone is also overdue. I don't have an iPhone so I'm no expert but from what I've heard it was originally expected to hit the market in June or July. Now the latest guesses are September or October.

Is it just a coincidence that these two products are both late?

So what if there is something about Filemaker 12 and or Filemaker Go or both that tie it or them even more closely to the iPhone. What if Filemaker 12 can be easily connected to a cloud based service for instance. Rumors say that Apple is working on deploying some sort of cloud based services so could it be that Apple is trying to time the introduction of FM12 and the 5th generation of the iPhone and the introduction of cloud based services so that they all happen on the same day making one great big splash?

Where's Waldo?
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#2 comment  consultant

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 01:50 PM

What if FMI actually had version 12 ready to go but were ordered by a higher authority to go into a holding pattern.


Makes sense, given how closely the two have coordinated their launches in the past...
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#3 bcooney  consultant

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 02:36 PM

:funnypost:
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#4 Ted S  all around good guy

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 05:27 PM

Makes sense, given how closely the two have coordinated their launches in the past...

There was no reason to have coordinated releases in the past because the two products were completely unrelated. Now with FM Go, the iPhone and Filemaker are undeniably related to each other and to the iPad.

Given the fact that iCloud is on the way I don't think I'm making too much of a stretch.

http://www.apple.com/icloud/

I'm not saying that the two product delays are in fact related, I'm only offering a reason why they could be related. Put another way, past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior but I'm glad you two can find humor in thinking it's so.
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#5 comment  consultant

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 06:05 PM

Come on, you didn't really think you could present a conspiracy theory without catching some flak, did you?


There was no reason to have coordinated releases in the past because the two products were completely unrelated.


See? That is funny. Because it's true - the two products were indeed unrelated. So FMI had to rush out an update to make the application "related" enough to the OS to run on it.



past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior


Of course not. However, when future behavior contradicts past behavior, it's called a surprise.
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#6 Ted S  all around good guy

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 06:30 PM

Come on, you didn't really think you could present a conspiracy theory without catching some flak, did you?

Anytime somebody attempts to predict the future they open themselves to ridicule. I simply thought your reasoning was flawed. As I said, the two delays could be completely unrelated but we won't know that until at least one of the products are released.

So FMI had to rush out an update to make the application "related" enough to the OS to run on it.

I'm not sure I follow this line of thought. Are you saying that if the two products were connected-at-the-hip so-to-speak, that Apple would have delayed Lion or whatever the latest OS is until the FMPro updater was ready to go? I don't think so. Seems like that would be like allowing the tail to wag the dog.

Of course not. However, when future behavior contradicts past behavior, it's called a surprise.

To some people perhaps. Others can be pretty good at predicting future events. I'm pretty good at predicting general economic conditions and election results but I haven't spent much time thinking about technology. I was just expecting FMI to release FM12 at DEVCON and when they didn't it got me to wondering why.
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#7 David Jondreau  Huzzah!

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 06:42 PM

The obvious answer is the right one.

But I want to see Steve Jobs' birth certificate.
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#8 comment  consultant

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Posted 01 September 2011 - 09:46 PM

Anytime somebody attempts to predict the future they open themselves to ridicule.


Not really. Do you ridicule the weather forecast? Or a doctor's prognosis?

Are you saying that if the two products were connected-at-the-hip so-to-speak, that Apple would have delayed Lion or whatever the latest OS is until the FMPro updater was ready to go?


No, I am saying that FMI has a history of not catching up to what Apple is doing - despite Apple providing advance info to ALL its developers.


when future behavior contradicts past behavior, it's called a surprise.

To some people perhaps.


No, that is the definition of surprise.


I was just expecting FMI to release FM12 at DEVCON and when they didn't it got me to wondering why.


My theory is that they find version 11 sooooo perfect...
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#9 Ted S  all around good guy

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Posted 02 September 2011 - 04:09 AM

Do you ridicule the weather forecast? Or a doctor's prognosis?

I generally don't, but some do. Remember that nutty fella -- Harold Camping -- who forecast the the end of the world earlier this year? He was harshly ridiculed for making a forecast and he was ridiculed before being proven wrong. The safe thing is to make no forecast, no predictions, and then when something happens or doesn't happen claim you knew it all along.

No, that is the definition of surprise.

Actually surprise is when the unexpected happens, not when history just fails to repeat itself.
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#10 comment  consultant

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Posted 02 September 2011 - 04:32 AM

he was ridiculed before being proven wrong.


That's my point: it's not about making predictions per se - it's about the method being used.

Actually surprise is when the unexpected happens, not when history just fails to repeat itself.


It's actually the same thing.
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#11 David Jondreau  Huzzah!

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Posted 02 September 2011 - 06:31 AM

Harold Camping made predictions based on terrible evidence (God told him so). His prediction should not have been taken seriously.

Your prediction (that FileMaker will introduce FM12, the 5th gen iPhone, and cloud based services on the same day) isn't supported by the available evidence either.


There's a wonderful site called lesswrong.com. It's a platform for discussing issues of evidence-based thinking. I recommend taking a look.
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#12 Ted S  all around good guy

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Posted 02 September 2011 - 07:32 AM

Your prediction (that FileMaker will introduce FM12, the 5th gen iPhone, and cloud based services on the same day) isn't supported by the available evidence either.

And I recommend you re-read what I wrote. I provided evidence why I think the release date of the three products *may* be related. Note that is used the phrase "MAY be related", not "ARE related". Also note that in my original post that I said the most likely reason was just simple schedule slippage.

Until one of the products is released we won't have the answer. Until then this is just a "tastes great", "less filling" argument between a few people who have no firsthand knowledge of anything.
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#13 jasonwood  Quarfie

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Posted 11 September 2011 - 11:56 AM

I'm predicting FileMaker 12 will be announced on September 23 or within a week thereafter, because this promo ends on September 22:

http://www.filemaker....com/vlabundle/

In response to the original poster, it is most likely that Devcon was ALL about FMP12, but the attendees are bound by NDAs. They now have a head-start on learning the new software, writing books, making video tutorials, etc, etc, etc.
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#14 David Jondreau  Huzzah!

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Posted 11 September 2011 - 12:21 PM

The VLA bundle has been coming and going for several years. I wouldn't attach any importance to the expiration date.

What NDA are conference attendees bound by? The session schedule is public knowledge. And do you really think a thousand people can keep a secret, NDA or not?

Why are people so attracted to the idea of "secret knowledge"?
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#15 comment  consultant

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Posted 11 September 2011 - 01:33 PM

Why are people so attracted to the idea of "secret knowledge"?


I could tell you, but then I'd have to...
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#16 Inky Phil  Loose cannon

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 01:06 AM


I could tell you, but then I'd have to...

:giggle:
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I thought ' With what I know now I think I should start again' - so I did.

With what I know now...............

#17 David Jondreau  Huzzah!

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 07:17 AM


I could tell you, but then I'd have to...


I walked right into that one!
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-Edward Tufte

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#18 Fitch  Imaginary friend

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 10:56 AM

What NDA are conference attendees bound by? The session schedule is public knowledge.


The keynote is typically NDA, and photos/recording devices are prohibited. The keynote always includes previews of coming attractions, always with the disclaimer "this may or may not be included in a future version of FileMaker," and they're always careful to not mention a specific version number.

There has been at least one year where a new version was announced at DevCon and many of the scheduled sessions were updated to cover the new version. That's not typical, though, and didn't happen this year. The theme was FM Go, the sessions were as published, and no new version of any FileMaker product was announced.
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#19 Ted S  all around good guy

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Posted 12 September 2011 - 12:31 PM

And do you really think a thousand people can keep a secret, NDA or not?

Intuitively I would think it would be nearly impossible for 1,000 people to keep a secret and yet I don't know a darn thing about the upcoming version and there has been not one but two Devcons in which the attendees probably got some information about the new version. Apparently that particular group of 1,000 does a good job of clamming-up.

I suppose it you know somebody close to Filemaker Inc. you might be able to get some inside information but if you're just an outsider like me, it's impossible to find anything in the public sphere. The loyalty and ethics of the Devcon attendees is pretty impressive I think.
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#20 GouldyFTW  member

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Posted 04 October 2011 - 05:38 AM

I have picked up the tiniest hint at when 12 might be released and stumbled across this thread from our good friend google. And since this thread seems to be about jumping to conclusions based on could be facts... My first reference will be http://en.wikipedia....Version_history

In the table of versions, it states that full Lion support will not be available until October 2011 - when they have already released a Lion patch for 11, could this mean 12 is due for release sometime this month? However much I would like this to be the case there are two possible (and potentially more plausible) explanations:

1. I have assumed that the "Full Lion Support" statement at the bottom of that version table has been dragged up from the depths of FileMaker's website or use license agreement, when in fact it could just as easily be a wikifact and therefore my theory has no basis at all.

2. If the October 2011 date for full lion support did in fact come from FileMaker it may well have been added by the lawyers in case there were issues with the first patch!

As you can see, even I'm not entirely convinced by my own theory - but we can all hope right!? (Plus if it's right, I want evidence that I "predicted (guessed) it correctly) Perhaps we will know more tonight once the big iPhone conference has gone down!
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