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Filemaker 12 - Code name Waldo

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Posted

Filemaker Pro version 11 was unveiled in March of 2010. Fourteen months earlier we first saw FM version 10 and eighteen months before that we saw version 9. According to Wikipedia the typical time between major releases is in the neighborhood of fifteen to eighteen months.

Given that history and the fact that it has been roughly 17 months since the last new version was introduced it would seem like a new version is due any day now, or perhaps it was really due early LAST month.

Filemaker Inc's big developer show of the year, DEVCON, was held just about a month ago and nothing new was introduced or revealed at that show... at least not to the general public. I can't say if attendees were given a special look at the next version as I wasn't there nor have I talked with anybody who was.

Now it would seem like DEVCON would be the perfect place to build up excitement about a new version. DEVCON has hundreds of attendees some of who live and breathe Filemaker day and night. I would think that FMI executives know that their most loyal customers have to pony-up as much as a couple grand to attend the four day DEVCON and would think that it is a big disappointment for the developers not to have something new to learn about and something new to talk about. This failure to make the attendees happy should be a big concern to FMI. The question is why wasn't FM12 released?

The obvious answer is that the new version just plain isn't ready yet. Maybe it was supposed to be but the schedule slipped for some reason.

Or perhaps it wasn't ever intended to be released at DEVCON. Maybe FMI is switching to a 24 month release cycle but history would say no and it just seems to me that products like Google Chrome are moving in the other direction with releases happening every 6 weeks. Before you jump all over me I know that there is a world of differences between Chrome and FMP but it just seems like for cash flow reasons the cycle shouldn't be getting longer.

The last scenario is the interesting one. What if FMI actually had version 12 ready to go but were ordered by a higher authority to go into a holding pattern. What if version 12 was ready to be released at DEVCON but FMI's mother ship, Apple Computer, put the brakes on it.

But why would Apple do that?

Interestingly, the next iPhone is also overdue. I don't have an iPhone so I'm no expert but from what I've heard it was originally expected to hit the market in June or July. Now the latest guesses are September or October.

Is it just a coincidence that these two products are both late?

So what if there is something about Filemaker 12 and or Filemaker Go or both that tie it or them even more closely to the iPhone. What if Filemaker 12 can be easily connected to a cloud based service for instance. Rumors say that Apple is working on deploying some sort of cloud based services so could it be that Apple is trying to time the introduction of FM12 and the 5th generation of the iPhone and the introduction of cloud based services so that they all happen on the same day making one great big splash?

Where's Waldo?

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Posted

What if FMI actually had version 12 ready to go but were ordered by a higher authority to go into a holding pattern.

Makes sense, given how closely the two have coordinated their launches in the past...

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Posted

:funnypost:

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Posted

Makes sense, given how closely the two have coordinated their launches in the past...

There was no reason to have coordinated releases in the past because the two products were completely unrelated. Now with FM Go, the iPhone and Filemaker are undeniably related to each other and to the iPad.

Given the fact that iCloud is on the way I don't think I'm making too much of a stretch.

http://www.apple.com/icloud/

I'm not saying that the two product delays are in fact related, I'm only offering a reason why they could be related. Put another way, past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior but I'm glad you two can find humor in thinking it's so.

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Posted

Come on, you didn't really think you could present a conspiracy theory without catching some flak, did you?

There was no reason to have coordinated releases in the past because the two products were completely unrelated.

See? That is funny. Because it's true - the two products were indeed unrelated. So FMI had to rush out an update to make the application "related" enough to the OS to run on it.

past behavior is no guarantee of future behavior

Of course not. However, when future behavior contradicts past behavior, it's called a surprise.

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Posted

Come on, you didn't really think you could present a conspiracy theory without catching some flak, did you?

Anytime somebody attempts to predict the future they open themselves to ridicule. I simply thought your reasoning was flawed. As I said, the two delays could be completely unrelated but we won't know that until at least one of the products are released.

So FMI had to rush out an update to make the application "related" enough to the OS to run on it.

I'm not sure I follow this line of thought. Are you saying that if the two products were connected-at-the-hip so-to-speak, that Apple would have delayed Lion or whatever the latest OS is until the FMPro updater was ready to go? I don't think so. Seems like that would be like allowing the tail to wag the dog.

Of course not. However, when future behavior contradicts past behavior, it's called a surprise.

To some people perhaps. Others can be pretty good at predicting future events. I'm pretty good at predicting general economic conditions and election results but I haven't spent much time thinking about technology. I was just expecting FMI to release FM12 at DEVCON and when they didn't it got me to wondering why.

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Posted

The obvious answer is the right one.

But I want to see Steve Jobs' birth certificate.

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Posted

Anytime somebody attempts to predict the future they open themselves to ridicule.

Not really. Do you ridicule the weather forecast? Or a doctor's prognosis?

Are you saying that if the two products were connected-at-the-hip so-to-speak, that Apple would have delayed Lion or whatever the latest OS is until the FMPro updater was ready to go?

No, I am saying that FMI has a history of not catching up to what Apple is doing - despite Apple providing advance info to ALL its developers.

when future behavior contradicts past behavior, it's called a surprise.

To some people perhaps.

No, that is the definition of surprise.

I was just expecting FMI to release FM12 at DEVCON and when they didn't it got me to wondering why.

My theory is that they find version 11 sooooo perfect...

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Posted

Do you ridicule the weather forecast? Or a doctor's prognosis?

I generally don't, but some do. Remember that nutty fella -- Harold Camping -- who forecast the the end of the world earlier this year? He was harshly ridiculed for making a forecast and he was ridiculed before being proven wrong. The safe thing is to make no forecast, no predictions, and then when something happens or doesn't happen claim you knew it all along.

No, that is the definition of surprise.

Actually surprise is when the unexpected happens, not when history just fails to repeat itself.

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Posted

he was ridiculed before being proven wrong.

That's my point: it's not about making predictions per se - it's about the method being used.

Actually surprise is when the unexpected happens, not when history just fails to repeat itself.

It's actually the same thing.

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Posted

Harold Camping made predictions based on terrible evidence (God told him so). His prediction should not have been taken seriously.

Your prediction (that FileMaker will introduce FM12, the 5th gen iPhone, and cloud based services on the same day) isn't supported by the available evidence either.

There's a wonderful site called lesswrong.com. It's a platform for discussing issues of evidence-based thinking. I recommend taking a look.

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Posted

Your prediction (that FileMaker will introduce FM12, the 5th gen iPhone, and cloud based services on the same day) isn't supported by the available evidence either.

And I recommend you re-read what I wrote. I provided evidence why I think the release date of the three products *may* be related. Note that is used the phrase "MAY be related", not "ARE related". Also note that in my original post that I said the most likely reason was just simple schedule slippage.

Until one of the products is released we won't have the answer. Until then this is just a "tastes great", "less filling" argument between a few people who have no firsthand knowledge of anything.

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Posted

I'm predicting FileMaker 12 will be announced on September 23 or within a week thereafter, because this promo ends on September 22:

http://www.filemakeroffer.com/vlabundle/

In response to the original poster, it is most likely that Devcon was ALL about FMP12, but the attendees are bound by NDAs. They now have a head-start on learning the new software, writing books, making video tutorials, etc, etc, etc.

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Posted

The VLA bundle has been coming and going for several years. I wouldn't attach any importance to the expiration date.

What NDA are conference attendees bound by? The session schedule is public knowledge. And do you really think a thousand people can keep a secret, NDA or not?

Why are people so attracted to the idea of "secret knowledge"?

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Posted

Why are people so attracted to the idea of "secret knowledge"?

I could tell you, but then I'd have to...

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Posted

I could tell you, but then I'd have to...

:giggle:

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Posted

I could tell you, but then I'd have to...

I walked right into that one!

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Posted

What NDA are conference attendees bound by? The session schedule is public knowledge.

The keynote is typically NDA, and photos/recording devices are prohibited. The keynote always includes previews of coming attractions, always with the disclaimer "this may or may not be included in a future version of FileMaker," and they're always careful to not mention a specific version number.

There has been at least one year where a new version was announced at DevCon and many of the scheduled sessions were updated to cover the new version. That's not typical, though, and didn't happen this year. The theme was FM Go, the sessions were as published, and no new version of any FileMaker product was announced.

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And do you really think a thousand people can keep a secret, NDA or not?

Intuitively I would think it would be nearly impossible for 1,000 people to keep a secret and yet I don't know a darn thing about the upcoming version and there has been not one but two Devcons in which the attendees probably got some information about the new version. Apparently that particular group of 1,000 does a good job of clamming-up.

I suppose it you know somebody close to Filemaker Inc. you might be able to get some inside information but if you're just an outsider like me, it's impossible to find anything in the public sphere. The loyalty and ethics of the Devcon attendees is pretty impressive I think.

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Posted

I have picked up the tiniest hint at when 12 might be released and stumbled across this thread from our good friend google. And since this thread seems to be about jumping to conclusions based on could be facts... My first reference will be http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FileMaker#Version_history

In the table of versions, it states that full Lion support will not be available until October 2011 - when they have already released a Lion patch for 11, could this mean 12 is due for release sometime this month? However much I would like this to be the case there are two possible (and potentially more plausible) explanations:

1. I have assumed that the "Full Lion Support" statement at the bottom of that version table has been dragged up from the depths of FileMaker's website or use license agreement, when in fact it could just as easily be a wikifact and therefore my theory has no basis at all.

2. If the October 2011 date for full lion support did in fact come from FileMaker it may well have been added by the lawyers in case there were issues with the first patch!

As you can see, even I'm not entirely convinced by my own theory - but we can all hope right!? (Plus if it's right, I want evidence that I "predicted (guessed) it correctly) Perhaps we will know more tonight once the big iPhone conference has gone down!

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Posted

You may recall that the last time FileMaker made 'big changes' was FileMaker 7, and that release was also late- very late. If you are really wanting to see a radical new version of FileMaker, then maybe it is a ggod thing that they have not hit there 18 month cycle for this next release.

If you are intersted in following all the rumors about FileMaker 12, go to filemaker12.com and join in the discussion...

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Posted

I have a perhaps stunning prediction, guaranteed 100% accuracy:

FileMaker Next will be launched precisely on…the day that it is launched. Not a day later or sooner!

I do like Codename Waldo though.

The loyalty and ethics of the Devcon attendees is pretty impressive I think.

This. Yes, the FM community in general has ample supplies of both. IMHO it’s because most of us are in the consultancy business, which requires honesty and discretion with every interaction. It’s embedded in the DNA of consultancy (at least as we practice it in our sector - can’t speak to the Andersons of the world).

There’s a point to NDAs - it’s a contract. The company provides privileged information in return for non-disclosure. If it matters to your business enough to need to know if there’s a change in headwinds or emphasis in the future of the platform, then it’s a business decision to go find out, go to DevCon - and honor the NDA. It’s just part of the lifecycle of any product that some things simply can’t be publicly announced before they’re ready.

If you knew about Go months before it was released, it might substantially change what you offer to a client in terms of web-facing functionality or remote access. That’s the risk of not knowing - that you’ll go down a path that changes underfoot with a new release. The reward of not knowing is that you didn’t fork over several thousand dollars for the privilege of finding out.

But that uncertainty in predicting the future is true for everything in business, NDAs or early notification notwithstanding, and you just have to move forward with the information you have and make the best decisions you can. We don’t know what’s going to be in FM 13 either, but we can’t wait on projects to find out whether some key change will mess with what we’re working on now.

In short, loads of fun to speculate! But seriously, don’t expect people to be forthcoming about NDA stuff.

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it’s a contract. The company provides privileged information in return for non-disclosure.

The question remains why this information needs to be privileged. If it matters to your clients - the ones that have bought your product - why would you disclose it only to the few who did "fork over several thousand dollars for the privilege of finding out." Unless the contract is that the company provides privileged information in return for money.

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The question remains why this information needs to be privileged. If it matters to your clients - the ones that have bought your product - why would you disclose it only to the few who did "fork over several thousand dollars for the privilege of finding out." Unless the contract is that the company provides privileged information in return for money.

It’s a good question.

I personally don’t see a way of disassociating the privilege of knowing advance business info from an NDA - period. It’s an expectation that I don’t see as unreasonable at all.

I do see that there are other potential delivery mechanisms besides DevCon and the ETS that aren’t currently explored.

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I personally don’t see a way of disassociating the privilege of knowing advance business info from an NDA - period. It’s an expectation that I don’t see as unreasonable at all.

Well, I am trying to see what's reasonable about it, and I come up short. Presumably, the purpose of the NDA is to keep the information out of hands of certain individuals. Who exactly are they?

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Well, we’re talking about features which for lots of reasons they can’t guarantee will be in the next release, for one thing. There’s a reason why they say “may or may not be in the next release” when they talk them up at DevCon. New features get added, dropped, moved, old features removed because no longer relevant. Why advertise to the whole world what is basically in the planning stage?

I’m saying it’s not unreasonable for a company to not want to go public with features which are incomplete, but still want to share them with a subgroup of developers and customers. I think you can argue about who those people ought to be, but I don’t think it makes any sense to say that NDAs serve no business purpose in this situation.

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I don’t think it makes any sense to say that NDAs serve no business purpose in this situation.

All I am saying is that I cannot see such purpose (other than taking the money of DevCon attendees). As for “may or may not be in the next release”, I'm sure FMI have at least one lawyer capable of formulating a disclaimer?

Why advertise to the whole world what is basically in the planning stage?

Because it helps your customers to "know if there’s a change in headwinds or emphasis in the future of the platform" and it doesn't hurt you in any way to let them know. On the contrary, they will be grateful to you for allowing them to plan ahead and your brand loyalty will increase.

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I have no inside info, but I wonder how FMI navigates the crocodile box jellyfish infested waters of integrating functionality into the program that was formerly the domain of third-party developers -- thereby making the developer's product obsolete. The NDA would help the developers in this respect.

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Posted

my name is the clue

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Posted

So much for "predictions"... :jester:

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Posted

my name is the clue

So, I guess that...

post-72594-0-62130800-1325595724_thumb.j

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Posted

All changes, even the most longed for, have their melancholy; for what we leave behind us is a part of ourselves; we must die to one life before we can enter another. ~Anatole France

filemaker is dead, long live filemaker

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Posted

Your lack of faith (in the force) is disturbing...

Darth Vader, Death Star conference room, 1977

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Posted

I got this from my psychic - anyone knows what it means?

post-72594-0-14391800-1326139144_thumb.j

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I got this from my psychic - anyone knows what it means?

Your psychic has clean fingernails and owns a digital camera?

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