Are computer applications unlimited/limitless??

[fmforme]

(sorry if this question is a little off-base or too broad)....

But it does have very indirect emphasis on the use of FM sw.

A long time ago, 1992, my computer professor, Head of Computer Dept at Boston College and noted Operating Systems author (I'm sure many would recognize his name) quoted something in first day of my class in "Intro to Programming in C".... something like...

(I'm really foggy and not at all sure I heard him correctly)....

There are MORE (like as in infinite) problems in the world (ie: business, science, gov't,home-use,etc,etc) which computers and software can be applied and solved than there are Less.

DO ya know what I mean or he meant ?

Do I have this backwards or correct ?

What is the jist as to what he was getting at?

Can someone say with some authority or speak to this subject.

I know he was very well qualified and many people would recognize his name I believe.

I probably have it backwards....

To ask if it another way...

1. Are there thousands and thousands of problems/areas which computers and sw can be applied OR

2. Is there really only a few limited problems/things which computers and sw can be helpful/solve/make our lives simpler/faster/easier :

I certainly hope it is #1 (the former) above so that I can have some hope in making some kind of further living in computers.

Because if he meant to say #2 (the latter) above then the idea that computers and sw have saturated the world (with the help of Bill Gates and his MS empire and IBM of course) then I am completely sh*it-out-luck and better start to learning how to flip burgers.

Sometimes after being "in computers" almost 20 years I feel the latter

and that almost everything one can think/dream up has ALREADY been tried/solved by some computer application. And there ain't much more need for us programmers.

[Editorial]: (be warned)...

Besides most every home computer sits idle collectiing dust not really doing anything of any REAL use except maybe some people surfing the net or send/reading inane emails or no AOL IM'g and chatting.

(Sooo intelligent!!!)

I've also seen/experienced MANY MANY corporate large computers/servers in companies just burning up electricity and pounding out wasteful heat to be coooled nonstop by huge HVAC's while the computers sit humming idly all day and nite 365 days/year without a single user logging in or app running.....

SIMPLY AMAZING and and goood example of American corporations out-of-control, wastefulness, greed and burning up our precious natural resources

(sorry for the rant)

Can someone try to clear up my main top question?

Thanks

[LiveOak]

Wow! I doubt I can clear up all that. My computer science professor, way back in 1970, who you wouldn't recognize, never had a similar quote. You might want to ask him what he meant.

Sound like you are suffering a little bit of burn out. I've been in a technical field (electrical engineering) since before the microprocessor. Industries I've worked in have changed and contracted and disappeared. It's a guarantee that the field or engineering or computers will 1) continue to exist and 2) be barely recognizable in 20 years. The key isn't picking the proper field, but picking the proper base skills - science, math, accounting, business. These base skills remain applicable. That isn't to say that you can quit learning. My general rule for the technical side of the FM business is that it is about 50% different every three years.

As to whether all the worlds computer problems have been solved and everything invented... I thought someone said we should close the patent office is the late 19th century because everything had been invented! I belong to and get publications from the IEEE, SAE, and AIAA* and I certainly don't have this impression. I've in awe of how fast things are changing and how much new stuff comes along.

Perhaps in the computer world (this is commentary) the appearance of the lack of invention is due to the domination by Bill Gates. The most recent IEEE Spectrum magazine laments how Microsoft innovations are controlled by which will lead to market domination and Microsoft designers lament this policy.

In, for instance, the automotive design arena, I'm continually amazed at the innovation of systems and materials in new autos.

You might also want to get away from corporate america. My clients are almost all small and medium businesses. Under utilization of resources isn't as much of a problem in this world, lot less office politics too.

-bd

* Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, Society of Automotive Engineers, American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics

[Anatoli]

RE: In, for instance, the automotive design arena, I'm continually amazed at the innovation of systems and materials in new autos.

That is true, because fierce competition exist in that area.

On the other hand -- automobiles damages environment so heavily (computers also) and look at the LA. City with largest parking areas in the world -- you cannot call their "freeway" and "motorway" system with other name, but slowly moving parking lot. And why it is so? I've heard story, that Ford and Firestone bought their old public transport system to destroy it so they can have better sales.

To be honest -- that is bigger crime than the BG and MS affair.

On the other hand -- I've switched to MS when Apple failed to deliver enough robust OS for me and neglected the various languages aspects. Not MS marketing or tricks, but inability of Apple Inc to deliver pushed me into MS. And I was using the Apple since '82 and in '92 I was Apple Evangelist No. 1 in Czech Republic. How I tear and ripped the DOS and Windows 3! People where laughing and I've got often standing ovation when comparing the Mac OS 7 with MS crap.

Then come NT4 and I had fewer crashes in past 4-5 with them than in 1 month in Mac OS and Adobe, FM and browser software.

Also the costs: to paid $150 for replacement power supply in home computer -- Performa630 when I can build 1/3 of new PC with that kind of money! Keyboard for Mac 100 dollars and 10 for PC. I am talking here the prices in Czech Rep. but in US they (Macs) are also more expensive.

I believe Apple Inc. is exploiting loyal users more than MS tenfold. I can build tune-up PC for any job, but I must buy Apple computer with features I do not need and buy some extras when I need something different.

Apple was always ahead in ideas and now I am sort of PC SCSI expert just because I've learned so much about SCSI 8-10 years ago with Apple SCSI, in fact I was FWB distributor for Czech Republic and East Europe.

[CobaltSky]

The guy was being visionary - somewhat.

What he meant was that computers will pop up anywhere and everywhere - even where you least expect them. Ten years ago, that was already well and truly evident. Forty years ago, if you'd told someone that computers would soon be used to paint pictures, develop photos, record and play music and wash dishes, most people back then would have looked at you strangely

Mind you most computers from back then are being used as doorstops these days

[LiveOak]

Where the microprocessor really dominates these days is not in the personal computer, but in embedded applications - cell phones, dryers, televisions, irons, autos, medical equipment, et al. For every microprocessor in a computer, there are 50 in other applications.It is almost impossible to find a HW/SW designer for embedded processors that is available (I know a truly great one in Oz).

-bd

[fmforme]

Thanks bd...

Yesss... guess I'm burned out maybe lots (been thru about 4 layoffs in last 20 yrs in corporate computer world and still loooking ...).

It is very tiresome and lot work to keeep up with the tech revolution which is non-ending. I am trying to get out of the corporate side - but tough when they can provide a steady sizeable steady(again) paycheck with some nice frills (like insurance). Yes agree... politics is absolutely cut-throat... Co-workers would sell their mother and babies just to keep their job or get the "credit".

Pretty hard to go it alone on your own even these days... no matter how good the FM sw might be.

Hardest job ya got is to convince some small business owner to "buy" whatever your tryin to sell him when he only wants desperately his own customers to "sell" to ! (Ya have to be a damm good salesman to survive).

Yess... the auto world is Unbelievable in how fast and hi-tech the cars continually become yr after year. Maybe it is the fact of competition.

But also USA and world with their love-affair with speed/freedom/wind-in-hair cars and shiny metal hurtling over the roads.

Thanks for your incite and comments

[fmforme]

So how does the "embedded sw application" "boom" help a budding/aspiring FM application programmer like me??

Not much!

I know/agree that the embedded sw/hw thing is a huge Booomer...

but in the plain simple pc/application sw world I really have my doubts as to how many areas/problems are "still" left to be solved and SOLD!

I guess thrust of my topic and question is again.... how feasible is it to make some kind of decent living and (I mean long term meaning maybe 20 yrs or so) making/writing typical pc sw apps whether it is with FM sw or whatever sw one can learn/use in these days 2002 where there is NOW a huge oversaturation of computers and pc's.

Guess I need some real hard evidence/proof from those of you successful

independent sw programmmers(peddlers) out there.

[LiveOak]

The good news...and the bad news. The evidence of the existence of independent FM developers can be found at FM DevCon. It was attended by about 1200 people, about 500 of which are independent FM developers. It does, however, take a while to develop a business. It took me a little over three years to really make a living at it (starting in 1993). If anything, it should be somewhat easier now. FM is an established product with better capabilities and the employment picture is somewhat better. I was part of a layoff from Nissan, then over 40 and ex-aerospace, not a pretty picture.

-bd

[Anatoli]

4 layoffs?

If I had some money from all records I was drumming on I'll be a rich man. Something like 2 000 000+ sold.

If I had some money from records I've produced, I'll be a rich man. Something like 1 800 000+ sold.

Bloody communists stole all that what rightly belong to me.

But maybe I'll be dead from booze or drugs, like 50% of other musicians I know. This way I didn't have single problem with booze and never did drugs.

One think is sure. I never ever rely on "employment". When things are slow on the financial side I am taking some 6-12 months jobs, but I was in majority of my life freelance something.

Not so bad life...

[LiveOak]

Independent contracting is not for everyone, but those who tolerate it will never have quite the same feeling of desperation as when you an employee between jobs. Working for yourself and being short of business never leaves you feeling quite as lost of hopeless, there is always something you can act on to try and remedy the situation. Maybe an illusion, but a different feeling.

-bd

[Anatoli]

I think it is about self-respect and about trusting own abilities.

Self-employed people MUST trust themselves even without order for 6 months. Anyone can hire me if the pay is good. As musician, producer or FM consultant. And I know when the contract is finished I'll be again without work.

So I am going constantly through layoffs

Problem for some people is that they didn't manage in work to be irreplaceable thus securing their survivor chance. And I agree -- it is shock, from complete security to uncertain future over very short period of time. The only difference is that I know all this ahead.

[fmforme]

Thanks alot for both your comments...

Yess... 4 layoffs. One major being from Digital Equipment Corp(DEC)... where approx 50,000 to 60,000 people lost their living/job from 1990 to 1994.

I was gone somewhere in middle of bloodbath in late 1992 after a dedicated 50-60 hour workweeks of over 9 years. At its peak in 1990 - DEC had about 130,000 people worldwide, only second biggest to IBM's 300,000 people/kingdom. By 1994, it was literally cut in half by goood ole Bob Palmer who took over from (the booted out founder/owner/former major stockholder) Ken Olsen. 1994, Compaq basically bought the remaining major pieces of DEC and now they're owned by Hewlett-Packard(HP). What a sad story and DISASTER for many!!!

Anatoli- looks like you're from Czechlovakia? and may not understand the hi-tech economy history and current downfall/abyss (here in US and moreso in New England here) that it is in right now and still going down (ever since I say Nov-Dec 2000) (the start of the Dot.com bust/failures/wipeouts)...

Anybody who thinks it's all gonna get better is living in dreamworld...

Evidence: just take look at the biggest Boston newpaper, Boston Globe, today Sun Sept 8 2002. It is for sure the Biggest hi-tech/professional Want Ad Sunday edition all year in New England/Boston area for the past 20 years. When DEC, Wang, DG, PR1ME, etc etc were in their heyheydays from late '70's thru 1990 - there were HUGE oneFull page color ads begging for hi-tech/computer people and went on for minimal of 20 sometimes 30 good pages (no exagerration). The paper today, 8 Sept 2002, has no big ads and last a whole 2 pages Absolutely PATHETIC!

Ask anyone in Boston or look up on-line to get idea.

I am not lying... I have followed/worked this industry since high school when I first layed eyes on a DEC PDP-8e and learned how to toggle in octal/binary bootstrap code and watch the pretty orange lites.

If anyone out there can't read/see the handwriting on the wall...

I believe (as I did correctly one year ago in summer of 2001 (before 9-11)) there is absolutely NOTHING on horizon in NEXT Year (at least) or so coming to pull the computer/hi-tech jobs/industry out of the down-spiral/nosedive.

I do NOT believe (and many others are comin to realize) things will NEVER be again as fruit&plenty as it was in dot-com days (pre-2001)

Really is AMAZING. State gov'ts here in Massashusetts and many others are so hurting badly they are cutting their budgets severely right now due mainly to the lack of high income paychecks and associated high income taxes derived from so many residents with great jobs. But NO LONGER!

I have tried the contractor route tooo... not too bad... BUT that has also dried up and there are no computer "Jobs" around now.

The independent thing is nice mainly because it's self-directed (you're more incontrol of your life), not have to take sh*t/orders from jerk bosses/coworkers.... but it does take lots of discipline, guts,confidence,tech skills, great marketing/selling/communication skills!!.

And you can feeel little better by taking most of blame if you don't succeed and just keep plugging away.

(my 2 cents)

[Anatoli]

RE: the start of the Dot.com bust/failures/wipeouts

Everyone knows that the whole dotcom was just bubble that burst with big bang.

The collapse was only in the US and maybe in UK, but not in Eastern Europe or India. We cannot support bubbles we are living in reality. Petrol costs are 2-time higher than in US and good salary is 500 - 700 dollars in month.

Also when I was watching companies and their performance per employee, the DEC was the lowest I believe around 1985, actually half of that of other more aggressive companies. Technologically speaking it was on top, in productivity at bottom.

I feel sorry for all people being laid off, but economics must be sound. DEC was just losing money operation for too long.

On the other hand -- there is plenty of work everywhere for hard working people. I am turning down 90% of jobs offered to me mainly because I don't have the time.

I think the future is bright for East Europe, Mexico, India and programmers from such countries. And it will be also for many US people if only they can live abroad and be happy with $700 per month.

There are global forces, Internet, emails and virtually no distance, just shift in time.

[fmforme]

C'mon get serious will ya.... Have you ever been here in US for even one day ? Does not sound like it....

$700 /month and living in Mexico, Eastern Europe, India AIN'T where

any Americans I know WANT to be !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

So let's be serious willya.... The standard of living here in USA can NOT

even start to compare with any of those areas you talk about....

There are not jobs/work everywhere (NOT here in USA in Hi/tech/computers).... The bubble has bursted and nothing in sight !

Goood luck with living in Czech and working in all those backwater countries. I like living where I live and LOVE USA !!!

[Anatoli]

Everything is about choice. Why should companies in this global economy place the order for software development in US when they can do it much cheaper somewhere else? So other countries gain is loss for US.

Why are so many US companies manufacturing in Mexico? Capitalism is not about protecting US jobs, but about financial result. Every child knows that these days.

BTW I also do like the USA. That is why I visited USA more than 15 times. If you need proof, just see the FM conference pictures.

It is beautiful country with mostly nice people.

So you must work more hard to keep it that way.

[Anatoli]

And speaking about DEC and problems that company had.

No wonder the company hit the rocks:

"There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home."

--Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corporation, 1977

Steve Jobs and Bill Gates have fortunately different point of view and I have my first Apple IIe in home in 1982, 5 years after that. I didn't manage to get the Apple I.

[SteveB]

The computer indusrty is littered with the bodies of companies that couldn't or wouldn't anticipate what customers wanted next. A partial list: RCA, Xerox, Control Data, Cray, NCR, UNIVAC, Honeywell(mainframes); minis: Prime, Data General, DEC. The list of PC manufacturers no longer around is longer than my arm.